China's agriculture 60 years:  from self-sufficiency to grain contribution

(Xinhua )  After 60 years of struggle and development, the Chinese people have bid farewell to a life of poverty and the lack of food. The grain self-sufficiency rate has remained above 95 percent for years.

In 2007, rural per capita net income has grown to 4,140 yuan (606 U.S. dollars), five times that of 1978. The total volume of grain yield in 2008 reached 525 million tons, compared to 113 million tons in 1949.

A farmer checks on the progress of her rice crop in Qionghai, Hainan province. [Source: China Daily]

In 2005, China halted receiving grain assistance from other countries and donated 577,000 tons of grain instead, becoming the third largest grain donator in the world, just after the U.S. and the European Union.

At present, the Chinese per capita nutrition intake has risen above the world average level. The number of poor in rural areas has declined from 250 million in 1978 to today's 14.79 million, making China one of the few countries to have reduced poverty levels in its population.

Henk-Jan Brinkman, senior economic analyst with the World Food Program, said China had "set an example" for the elimination of poverty and hunger.

Fang Cheng, senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), said: "China has made tremendous progress in poverty alleviation since the country adopted its policy of reform and opening-up in 1978."

"As the most populous country in the world, China has successfully fed a population making up about 20 percent of the world's total. The country's significance for the world's grain security is self-evident," he said.

The credit goes primarily to government-backed policies on the Three Agricultural Problems (agriculture, rural areas, farmers), which have increased public investment and promoted technological advancement, Fang added.

China's strong technological strength has boosted three major grain productions. Corn's yield per unit has increased from 1.18 tons per hectare in 1961 to 5.15 tons in 2007, rice has been raised to 6.43 tons per hectare from two tons, wheat is up from 0.56 ton to 4.61 tons.

As David Bradford, a geosciences professor at the Pennsylvania State University put it, a healthy food system consists of three elements: investment for agricultural research & development, infrastructure construction, and a reasonable food pricing system.

Farmers harvest wheat in Shandong  province

China has made remarkable achievements in all the three areas, he said.

The Chinese government has put food safety as a basic human right, and is taking measures to encourage agriculture to transform from the current self-sufficiency and half self-sufficiency modes to large-scale commercial production, and from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.

The new target of the Chinese government is to increase grain production to 540 million tons by 2020, and double Chinese farmers' 2008 annual net income.

To reach the goal, the Chinese government raised its agricultural budget by 30.3 percent in 2007 and 37.9 percent in 2008 and it is expected to rise another 20.2 percent this year.

"No other big country, barring India, has increased spending on farming so much," said the Financial Times. However, it also warned of severe challenges to the planned crop output increase, including water scarcity, loss of fertile land, slowing agricultural productivity growth, and climate change.

the local villager of Caigungtang Township in Lhasa is smiling after reaping wheat.   Source:  China Tibet              Information Center

The Chinese government has long realized and prepared for the problems. In the Outlines Regarding the State Mid- and Long-Term Grain Security Plan for 2008-2020 Period, the government listed a series of challenges the Chinese agriculture is facing, including the fact that China's grain supply and demand will be in a tight balance for a long period, deficits in agricultural product trade, annual increases in the import of soybean and cotton and rising prices of major agricultural and sideline products. "Agriculture remains the weak part of national economy," the outlines said.

Andrzej Kwiecinski, a leading economist with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), once pointed out that, although China's agricultural development still faces some problems, such as a large income gap between farmers and city dwellers and lagging investment, he still feels optimistic about the sector's future, due to its amazing achievements in the past.

The development of Chinese agriculture has also provided a guide for other developing countries. A new report from an African agricultural technology fund pointed out that the prosperity of China's agriculture has "provided experiences for Africa."

Currently China has set up or is setting up more than 20 agricultural technology demonstration centers around the world, and will double the number of experts to be dispatched overseas. The seed planted to feed the Chinese is also likely to feed people in other developing countries.

China's agriculture will be severely affected by climate change

Extreme droughts could more than triple crop losses in northeast China, a McKinsey study says.

By Rie Jerichow 

Recently, two studies have focused on the impact of climate changes in China. Both agree that the world’s number one emitter of greenhouse gases will experience unstable weather and a dramatic drop of major crops production in the future.

Stable grain production is important for China economic development. Source:China Meteorological News Press

The Chinese grain production is likely to drop ten percent when temperature rises by one degree Celsius. The rice growing period of China will generally shorten seven to eight days if temperature rises one degree Celsius.

Drought is one of the most threat to agriculture production Source:China Meteorological News Press

That will lower the quality of rice, and if current grain production mechanism will not change up to 2030, the production potential of crop farming will drop five to 30 percent, says Zheng Guoguang, head of the China Meteorological Administration, in an article published on the agency’s website.

"If extreme climatic disasters occur twice or more within five years – for example, major drought over two or three years – then the impact on our country's economic and social development would be incalculable," writes Zheng, according to Reuters.

A sketch map showing the drought situation in China in early February 2009 Source:China Meteorological News Press

It is imperative to take active and effective measures to tackle climate change, the article on the China Meteorological Institute website concludes.

Weather modification become more important in coping with meteorological disasters. Source:China Meteorological News Press

Another McKinsey & Co. study estimates that extreme drought caused by a "high climate change scenario" could more than triple crop losses in northeast China to 13.8 million metric tons, or 12 percent of the total, by 2030. This scenario assumes a doubling in severity and frequency of extreme drought, it says in the report, according to Bloomberg.

Chinese premier stresses cooperation against climate change Source: Xinhua

However, the accuracy of predictions made so far ahead is difficult to judge, says Ma Wenfeng, a researcher at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd., according to the news agency.

"For a country the size of China, it’s difficult to tell whether certain weather trends will reduce or increase grains output in 50 years... Some places may have reduction while other areas which previously might not be suitable for grain production can become grain producer," Ma Wenfeng says, according to Bloomberg.     

China Vows to Change Agriculture Development Partern

BEIJING, Dec. 7, 2009 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese government pledged Monday to push forward the transformation of its economic development pattern next year while maintaining stable and comparatively fast economic growth.

    Participants at the three-day annual Central Economic Work Conference agreed that the global financial crisis highlighted the urgency to transform China's economic development pattern.

    They agreed that the government should coordinate efforts to maintain stable and comparatively fast economic growth and speed up the transformation of the economic development mode.

    The Central Economic Work Conference, held once a year to set the tone for next year's economic development, comprises policy-making officials from central and provincial-level governments, including President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

    The conference outlined six major tasks for next year's economic work: to improve macro-regulation to ensure stable and relatively fast economic growth, advance economic structure adjustment to lift quality and efficiency of economic growth, boost rural development momentum, deepen reform and opening up to enhance momentum and vigor of economic growth, promote stable export increase, improve people's livelihood and maintain social stability.

    The government would continue efforts to boost domestic demand, especially expand people's consumer demand, and make consumption contribute more to boost economic growth, according to a statement released after the conference.

    The government would also seek to push recovery of exports and promote balanced international trade, it said.

    More efforts would be spent to deepen economic system reform and enhance the momentum and vigor of economic growth.

    The government vowed to balance the tasks of ensuring a stable and relatively fast economic growth, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations next year.

    This was the second time the government mentioned about managing inflationary prospects in a national event after a State Council meeting in October picked the issue as one of the key points in macro-regulation for the rest of 2009.

    The country would maintain the continuity and stability of macro-economic policy and continue implementing the proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy.

  Introduction to China Agricultural Co-operatives

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